Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to electrify the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.
During that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.
The Evolution of Stance and Settled Issues
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on the EU
However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.
And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Doubts
Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.
It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- First, he believes a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
- Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced British officials that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Document & Geopolitical Calculations
This strange and concerning document asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation & The Echo of 2018
This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Danger & A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
